Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
